Flood
Is a cheap home cheap because it floods?
Houston homebuyers know the answer can be yes. Here is what the data says: how we measure flood risk, whether prices reflect it, and which homes look cheap for that reason.
How we measure it
Flood-insurance claims, zip by zip
Claims counted
207,364
FEMA flood-insurance claims in 8 Houston-area counties
Zips scored
158
Each gets a 0 to 1 rank by claims per listing
High flood-claim homes
2,567
In the top quarter of zips by claims per listing
For each zip we count FEMA flood-insurance claims and divide by how many homes are listed there, then rank the zips. The top quarter is labeled High, the next band Medium, the rest Low. It covers one zip as a whole, not a single house.
The big question
Do prices reflect flood risk?
Difference in price per square foot between the most and least flood-claim-heavy zips, holding home size, distance to downtown and new construction equal. Dot is the best estimate; the bar is the plausible range. 145 zips.
Best estimate: −10% per square foot, with a plausible range of −20% to +2%.
The range includes zero, so we cannot say flood risk is reliably priced in. If there is a discount, it is modest: about a tenth, not the steep drop you might hope for.
Our data cannot tell whether a discount like that covers the real cost of flood damage and flood insurance. That is why this site warns you about flood-prone zips instead of assuming the price already accounts for it.
By flood level
What homes cost in each group
Median asking price per square foot, for all homes in each flood-claim level (not adjusted for size or location).
- Low flood-claim zips15,111 homes in 63 zips$182 / sqft
- Medium flood-claim zips4,829 homes in 55 zips$168 / sqft
- High flood-claim zips2,567 homes in 40 zips$170 / sqft
View as table
| Flood level | Homes | Zips | Median price | Median $/sqft | Real bargains | Possible flood traps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 15,111 | 63 | $405,000 | $182 | 1528 | 0 |
| Medium | 4,829 | 55 | $349,995 | $168 | 667 | 0 |
| High | 2,567 | 40 | $327,500 | $170 | 0 | 424 |
Flood traps
Cheap homes we flag instead of recommending
Real bargains
2,195
10%+ below fair price, all three models agree, not in a high flood-claim zip
Possible flood traps
424
Same price signal, but in a high flood-claim zip
A home that looks 10% or more below fair price in a zip with lots of flood claims may be cheap for exactly that reason. Instead of calling it a bargain, we label it a possible flood trap. You can hide high flood-claim zips from any search with one tick box.
Highest claim rates
The ten zips with the most flood claims per listing
| Zip | Area | Claims per listing | Homes listed | Median price | Median $/sqft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77089 | Houston | 81.9 | 69 | $288,000 | $149 |
| 77096 | Houston | 63.7 | 89 | $450,000 | $207 |
| 77034 | Houston | 63.1 | 43 | $253,000 | $154 |
| 77565 | Kemah | 62.3 | 37 | $520,000 | $263 |
| 77539 | Dickinson | 60.4 | 126 | $315,300 | $156 |
| 77401 | Bellaire | 59.3 | 43 | $1,299,000 | $335 |
| 77040 | Houston | 56.5 | 61 | $345,000 | $166 |
| 77039 | Houston | 53.5 | 37 | $239,999 | $127 |
| 77093 | Houston | 50.2 | 47 | $299,990 | $197 |
| 77074 | Houston | 44.3 | 52 | $267,450 | $160 |
Zips with at least 30 listings. Claims per listing is smoothed so zips with few listings are not noisy.
Read this
What this can and can't tell you
- Claims exist only for homes that carry flood insurance, so uninsured flooding is missed.
- We divide by the number of homes listed in the zip as a rough stand-in for how many homes there are.
- The level describes the whole zip. Flood risk can differ a lot from one street to the next.
- Counting claims also reflects where storms hit and how many people file, not only where land floods.
- Check any home you like on FEMA's flood map and ask the seller about its flood history before you buy.